The Xtreme Verbier comes knocking

The Freeride World Tour 2025 consists of a total of six stops, of which the first five awarded the same amount of overall points to the athletes based on their respective event results, while the sixth and final event is reserved for the best athletes only and awards 20% more points (awarded points are rounded to multiples of five; there’s a more detailed analysis of the points system at the bottom of this article for your interest). In the Ski Men, the fifth event in Fieberbrunn had to be cancelled due to snow and weather conditions. Anyway, the ranking determining the cut following the Fieberbrunn stop was calculated from the top three results out of the first five—Ski Men four—event results. You can have a look at the official FWT rankings here.

The final rankings for the FWT Overall standings and title will then be calculated from the top four results out of all events, so out of six for Ski Women and the snowboard categories and out of five for Ski Men. That would also apply in case of cancellation of the final event in Verbier—at least that’s what studying the FWT website suggests. Below you can find the overall results in case the final event was cancelled, counting the top four events out of the season so far for both Ski Women and Ski Men. It’s interesting to note that there are only a few changes in the rankings compared to the rankings that decided the cut. In Ski Women, there is a switch between third and fourth as well as between sixth and seventh, and there would have been the same seven athletes qualified if the cut was done based on this ranking. In Ski Men, there are switches between fourth and fifth, seventh and eighth as well as tenth and eleventh, and instead of Oscar Mandin as the last rider to qualify, it would have been Tenra Katsuno.

In those ranking lists are also the lowest points for each athlete that would be included in their final overall result if the Verbier event was cancelled or in case the rider won’t have a better result in terms of points in Verbier. Since the Xtreme awards 20% more points than a result at the other tour stops—and there is less competition because of the cut—, it’s rather likely that athletes will improve their worst result. It’s a slightly different situation for Ski Men than it is for Ski Women, though—for the details, please see the analysis at the end of this article. In any case, you can see from those lists below, how likely it is that riders will improve their overall positions in Verbier: the lower the worst score so far, the better the chances to improve the overall result at the Xtreme.

There are only four athletes in Ski Women and Ski Men alike that still have a shot at the overall title. In Ski Women, Molly Armanino and Jenna Keller could become FWT champions only if they manage to win in Verbier, but they would also need the current leaders Justine Dufour-Lapointe and Astrid Cheylus to cooperate. In case of Molly Armanino, Justine must not place fourth or better and Astrid must not place third or better; in case of Jenna Keller, Justine must not place third or better and Astrid must not become second. So the chances for both aren’t huge, particularly since only six competitors will be at the start due to the unfortunate injury of Zuzanna Witych in Fieberbrunn. The chances for Jenna are slightly better despite the fact that Molly is in front of Jenna in below provisional standings, since the potential void result of Jenna is much worse—a tenth place versus a sixth place, both at the first stop in Spain.

It’s a different situation between Justine and Astrid, even though Justine looks to be clearly ahead on the provisional ranking without the Verbier result. Again, it’s because of the potential void results for both, which is a tenth place for Astrid—she will substantially improve if she only makes it into the start gate—and a fourth place for Justine, plus the fact that there are 20% more points on the line at the Xtreme. Therefore, Astrid Cheylus will become FWT champion if she manages to win in Verbier, regardless of the result of Justine, and also if she finishes second or third in front of Justine at the Xtreme with the additional restriction that in case of a third place finish, Jenna Keller must not win. In all other scenarios—particularly as long as she places in front of Astrid in Verbier and neither Molly nor Jenna take the win—Justine Dufour-Lapointe will earn her second overall title following her triumph as a FWT rookie two years ago.

Marcus Goguen’s grip on the Overall FWT Ranking 2025 is much stronger. Based on two victories in Canada and Georgia, the Canadian only needs a fourth place finish at the Xtreme to secure the title regardless of what his competitors will achieve. However, since there are 13 skiers at the start in Verbier—and all of them have the potential to win—this is not a small feat. From the other three remaining athletes with a title chance, Ben Richards is the clear outsider. The kiwi would need a win and a rather bad results of Marcus Goguen—must not place 10th or better—while Martin Bender must not place fourth or better and Valentin Rainer must not finish second. Valentin Rainer’s chances would also drastically profit from a victory in Verbier, although he still has a chance with a podium finish in Verbier as long as the other aspirants cooperate and finish rather low in the rankings. In case the former tour champion from Austria manages to win in Verbier, Marcus Goguen must not place fifth or better, while no other rider could deny Valentin a return to the top spot.

Martin Bender, currently sitting in second place overall, is of course the biggest threat to Marcus Goguen. If the Verbier local manages to get a win in front of his home crowd, Marcus will need a fourth place at the Xtreme to stay ahead, and even if Martin finishes second, then Marcus will still need at least a sixth place—that means in the upper half of the Verbier result list. In that case, though, Valentin Rainer must not win or he would surpass both. As you can see, the situation in the Ski Men’s category is pretty complicated and it might be that we won’t know the new FWT champion before the last rider has crossed the finish line, regardless of the starting order. But if you want to bet against Marcus Goguen as overall champion at the Peak Performance funbet, I’d count you among the adventurous types.

As promised, let’s have a more detailed look at the overall scoring system of the FWT. It’s very clean cut and easy to understand in the Ski Women’s category. Here, a victory at a normal tour stop earns the athlete 10,000 points, and for every place lower in the ranking the amount of points is reduced by 20%. That means 8,000 points for second place, 6,400 points for third, 5,120 points for fourth and so on. The only slight deviation from that scheme is that points are always rounded to the next multiple of 5, for example fifth place awards 4,095 points instead of 4,096, which would be exactly 80% of 5,120. At the tour final in Verbier, on the other hand, the amount of points awarded are exactly 20% more than at a normal tour stop, again with the restriction that points are rounded to a multiple of 5.

The result of this scheme is, of course, that a win at the tour final is valid more than a win at any other tour stop, or in a wider perspective that if two riders have the same results to contribute to their overall ranking, the rider with the better result at the tour final will have the upper hand. Then again, it ensures that if two riders have three equivalent results and a different fourth result by one spot, the athlete with the better results is ahead, even if the result that is worse by one spot is achieved at the tour final as opposed to a better result at a regular tour stop. Example: Rider A and Rider B have two wins and a second place each before the final with A having another second place and B having only a fourth place. If B now finishes second at the final—A places behind—that means 20% more points for B’s second place and the overall victory. If B finishes third, however, it means 20% less for third place while 20% more because of the final, which is less than a regular second place—and therefore the overall victory for A. 1.2 times 0.8 equals 0.96!

In the Ski Men’s category, the scheme is a bit different, though—and less clean. This is likely due to the fact that there are more competitors in Ski Men, therefore the step down in points from one place to the next is smaller. As in Ski Women, however, the tour final in Verbier awards 20% more points per result. The detailed scheme of points is based on a slightly shifting drop from place to place: minus 12% from first to second, then minus 10% from second to third and this step slowly decreases to around minus 7% from eighth place onwards. Again, points are rounded to multiples of 5, but this process may skip the next multiple and can be more than ten points different when comparing steps made from place to place at the final as opposed to a regular event.

What does that mean? Well, it still means that a result at the tour final is more valuable than a result at a regular tour stop, but in contrast to Ski Women, a slightly worse result at the finals is more valuable in Ski Men compared to a regular tour stop. For example, a second place finish in Verbier is worth 10,550 for Ski Men—it is 9,600 points for Ski Women—while a victory at a regular tour stop is worth 10,000 points regardless of gender. What’s more, since the smaller reduction in points per place accumulates as you move down the result list, a tenth place at the finals in Verbier is worth 5,300 points in Ski Men, while an eighth place is only worth 5,120 points at a regular tour stop. Considering the fact that there are much fewer competitors at the finals because of the cut, this point scheme is at least questionable.